By Nofal Bin Adeel (Pakistan)
In the current swirl of various geopolitics headline and claim of approaching the ending of forever wars by leaders of the world came a new series of warning approaching straight from the Caribbean seas. The deployment of US largest aircraft USS Gerald Ford on the Caribbean waters with the deployment of 15000 US troops the largest in the region since the invasion of Panama in 1989 is sparking concerns about a potential new conflict shaping the region and the possibilities of escalation. As of recently trump message of the ordering of closure of all Venezuela airspace for all kind of traffic is bringing further confusion and tensions regarding the true exact nature of the confrontation between the Trump Administration and Venezuela. But this crisis was there before this administration as well. So, what is the endgame here? What does the US exactly want from Venezuela?
The official line from the United States government today frames its actions toward Venezuela as part of a larger “war on drugs.” Under what is now called Operation Southern Spear, the U.S. has deployed warships to the Caribbean, conducted airstrikes on vessels alleged to be traffickers, and labelled certain Venezuelan criminal organizations as terrorist groups. By portraying the current government of Nicolás Maduro as a “narco-terror cartel,” the U.S. gains global moral and legal pretext for deeper intervention economic, diplomatic, or even covert. In the longer run this political logic makes clarity because removing or weakening Maduro’s hold could allow Washington to install a more pliable leadership one friendlier toward U.S. strategic interests, whether in energy, trade, or broader hemispheric politics.
Venezuela remains home to some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves. For Washington and for U.S. energy-linked corporations such as Chevron which already have a limited presence in the oil market thanks to the partnership with the national oil company Petróleos de Venezuela. The destabilizing or reshaping Caracas’s political order in the politically fragile and disfranchised country potentially opens the door for renewed access to these energy riches. Indeed, independent media and analysts increasingly point to oil as the real “prize. The harder question is to understand whether this would sell off the same way as the claim of WMB by Bush on Iraq in 2003 in the current age of digital Media
According to some Political commenters and experts such as Fulton Armstrong a former U.S. intelligence official who have told journalists that one aim behind the current push against Venezuela is to “divert attention from the ‘Jeffrey Epstein files’ issue. These receiving political updates from the newest episode of the fiasco which is the ongoing US-Venezuela crisis which marks a so Noiyer le poisson (to drown the fish) moment by the current US Administration making it something ironically done similarly by the Bill Clinton administration during the Operation Infinite Reach bombings in Sudan and Afghanistan to divert attention from the Lewinsky scandal of 1998.
Make no mistake the current US administration leadership is surrounded by War hawks .The US Defense Secretary Pete Hegsen publicly tied to the 2025 military-campaign titled Operation Southern Spear with some claiming he was instrumental to the idea and the U.S. effort that includes naval deployments, strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats, and the increased military presence around Venezuela . Similarly, Marco Rubio the Secretary of state and a hardline Republican and war hawk within the Trump Administration repeatedly stated that US Military Intervention will always be considered an option justifying on the grounds of national security and his personal affiliation with the democratic values of Latin Americana affairs, something which he arguably describe as a proud defender of. The question arises, would US take such a gambit towards such uncharted territory?
Unlike the previous Military intervention of Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan during the War on terror the appetite by both the US government and the public for a new war seems minimal. Even within the Republican Party leadership people like Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene stated as being critical of any potential regime change and that US should not be involved in any further wars. Secondly unlike the Gulf war or the war on Iraq all the regional US alliesin the LATAM region such as the Organization of American States (OAS) , and its traditional partners rejected any sort of Military Intervention in the region fearing for the risk of massive Regional Destabilization in the region.
The third factor is the Military logistical quagmire. Unlike Iraq, Libya, or Afghanistan, Venezuela has dense jungles, mountainous terrain, and urban-heavy population centers with a well as a massive Milita branch army alerted for the potential conflict. Some U.S. generals have warned for years that Venezuela could turn into: “another Iraq, but in a jungle and with worse conditions for US troops” and pentagon is unlikely to risk involving high-casualty, high-terrain-difficulty operations unless the interests are two greats.
The U.S.–Venezuela standoff has entered a dangerous new phase, marked by B-52 bomber flights, a carrier group off the coast, and the largest American troop presence in the region since 1989. Washington insists this is about counter-narcotics, but its refusal to recognize Nicolás Maduro after the disputed 2024 election reveals a deeper political aim: tightening pressure on a government it views as illegitimate.
Yet a full-scale intervention remains improbable. Americans are weary of new wars, Latin American governments reject any military action, and Venezuela’s jungles and armed militias present a battlefield far more treacherous than Iraq. Analysts have long warned an invasion could become “Iraq in a jungle” a risk few in Washington want to own.
For now, the deployments look designed to intimidate, not invade. But with strategic bombers, warships, and political tempers all in motion, the danger is not intention but miscalculation and the Caribbean has little margin for error.
