By Abdul Rafay Afzal (Editor in Chief – The Advocate Post)
In the intricate tapestry of the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical dynamics, Ethiopia finds itself deftly weaving diplomacy to secure its strategic interests. The recent Ethiopia-Somalia agreement, mediated by Turkey in Ankara, underscores Ethiopia’s diplomatic agility. The primary intent behind this pact was to sway Ethiopia from its earlier 2024 agreement with Somaliland that promised sea access along with a lease of coastal territory. As Ethiopia weighs its options, it stands to benefit regardless of the path chosen, yet each option is fraught with distinct challenges.
On one hand, aligning with Somalia offers Ethiopia an expedited avenue to sea access. This could alleviate pressures from Somalia and other African states wary of recognizing Somaliland’s independence. However, the volatility of Somalia, exacerbated by insurgent threats such as Al-Shabaab, raises legitimate concerns about the security of trade routes. While an agreement with Somalia might seem diplomatically palatable, the tangible risks of instability cannot be ignored.
Conversely, Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland presents a strategic opportunity too enticing to dismiss lightly. Formal recognition of Somaliland might attract diplomatic backlash initially, yet Ethiopia stands to gain a more stable and secure maritime route. Somaliland’s stability, in stark contrast to Somalia’s turbulence, has been demonstrated through its functional democracy and peaceful power transitions, such as the recent elections shifting power to the Waddani Party.
The new government under Waddani aims to strengthen international ties and enhance Somaliland’s regional standing. Ethiopia’s engagement with Somaliland could catalyze a chain reaction where other nations might follow its lead in recognizing Somaliland, potentially setting a precedent in international law. Furthermore, with Somaliland offering not just sea access but also a lease on coastal land, Ethiopia could secure a maritime foothold—a strategic boon that only surfaces once in a century.
Veteran Somaliland Honorary Secretary General Abdi Karim highlights Ethiopia’s strategic interest in formalizing agreements with Somaliland, urging it to resist external pressures from influential regional players like Turkey, Egypt, Djibouti, and Eritrea. He said
“It is the strategic interest of Ethiopia to formally find the agreement or MOU with Somaliland without pressure from external sources (Turkiye, Egypt, Djibouti and Eritrea) Somalia is a failed state, we have seen in the last few days that their forces have been fighting themselves. In the South of Somalila the Jubbaland state have defeated the federal forces of Somalia. Instead of concerning about their internal issues they are trying to destabilise Somaliland.”
However, Ethiopia’s potential pivot towards Somaliland brings its challenges, primarily diplomatic friction within the African Union—an organization steadfast in its recognition of established borders. Yet, Ethiopia must consider whether the short-term diplomatic turmoil outweighs the long-term economic and strategic advantages. By investing in Somaliland’s stability and potential, Ethiopia could significantly bolster its own economic trajectory, leveraging its positioning in regional trade networks.
In conclusion, Ethiopia stands at a crossroads, with each path offering a unique blend of risks and rewards. Whether Ethiopia sides with Somalia, ensuring immediate diplomatic appeasement, or gambits with Somaliland’s sturdy promise of stability and growth, the decision will reverberate through the region’s geopolitical narrative. As the Horn of Africa remains a battleground for influence and power, Ethiopia’s diplomatic maneuvers in the Ankara Accord illuminate its role as a central arbiter in a complex and ever-evolving regional landscape.
