“Zara si baat par sadiyon ke yaaraane gaye
Chalo achcha hua kuch log yun hi pehchaane gaye ”
US President yesterday signed an executive order increasing tariffs on Indian goods entering USA from 25% ( which he had announced earlier ) to 50%. What could be the reason for this drastic step, which will adversely affect the Indian economy, and deeply harm Indo-US relationship ? Only till recent times India and USA had been close allies, and President Trump and Prime Minister Modi had been cozying up with each other, often seen physically embracing each other. America needed India as an ally, as a counterpoise to its main enemy China. And India needed US help as it was confronted by China which had even seized some Indian territory ( in Aksai Chin ).
Trump says he has taken this step since India is buying Russian oil, thus fuelling the Russian war machine, at a time when Ukrainians are being killed due to the Russian invasion. But China is also buying Russian oil, and yet US tariffs have not been raised on China above those already existing. Also USA is still buying many things from Russia. Will it impose tariffs on itself ?
So what is the real reason for Trump’s fury against India, a country with which only till yesterday it had close relations ? How does one explain this sudden somersault ?
One can only speculate, but I will give my own understanding.
Today in the world there are two powerful hostile alliances, (1) the US-Europe alliance, and (2) the Russo-Chinese ( or rather, Sino-Russian, since China has now become the senior partner ) alliance. These two alliances are hostile to each other, but not directly fighting each other militarily ( due to each having nuclear weapons which if used will cause mutual destruction ), but fight through proxies.
In this situation, the Indian government finds itself in a peculiar, and perhaps unenviable, position. On the one hand PM Modi’s natural affinity is towards the USA, yet he cannot give up India’s ties with Russia, from which it gets cheap oil and weapons. He is thus running with the hares, and hunting with the hounds.
This Indian policy was acceptable to American Governments till President Biden’s term in office. But Trump is made of a different metal than his predecessors. What must have particularly infuriated him was India’s continued membership of BRICS, an organisation dominated by Russia and China, and hostile to USA.
More and more countries are joining BRICs, and this must have alarmed the US Government ( just as expansion of NATO into East Europe alarmed Russia, and led to its invasion of Ukraine)
https://theadvocatepost.org/blog/2024/09/25/the-sleeping-giant-awakes/
Trump must have tried pressurising Modi into leaving BRICS, but the latter must have refused, thinking he is a powerful world figure, the ”Vishwaguru” which the Indian media has depicted him to be. Evidently this went to his head, and he thought he cannot be pressurised even by the most powerful country in the world.
But Trump, as said above, is made of another metal than his predecessor US Presidents. He does not believe in soft diplomacy with delicate touches or nuances, but is like a boxer who believes in hitting opponents directly on the nose. His philosophy is : it is my way or the highway. In other words, those who are not with me, are against me. Running with the hares, and hunting with the hounds, which worked earlier, will no longer do.
India was like a man in a river standing with one leg in one boat, and the other leg in another. Now that these boats are drifting apart, this balancing act may no longer work.
Interesting times are ahead
